In Western New York, our regional economy is struggling.
This may not seem like news, if you’re a Buffalo landlord or business owner — like me, you’ve probably noticed headlines about how hiring has remained sluggish throughout this spring and summer. But a recent revision to the statistics in the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that it might be worse than it seems. Read on for a summary of what statistics can tell us about the health of our regional economy — and my thoughts on what it means for our industry.
What’s Going on With the Regional Economy?
Last week, an employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a revision to its initial employment estimates for the 12-month period ending in March 2025. Nationwide, the BLS reported nearly one million fewer jobs than were originally estimated. In simpler terms: The actual job growth across the nation is weaker than what was expected based on survey data.
New York was one of just 12 states where nonfarm job growth was greater than what had been predicted — in fact, the state’s 1.1% revision was higher than any other state except Arizona. But in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metropolitan area, the job growth fell short of initial estimates by 2,300 jobs.
While the report only extends through this past March, there’s no evidence that there’s been a significant shift since. In fact, the Buffalo News reported a loss of 400 jobs in the Buffalo Niagara region in August, according to information released by the New York State Department of Labor on Thursday, Sept. 18.
What Does That Mean to Us?
Naturally, the real estate and leasing market will mirror these economic conditions. If job growth is low and people are potentially losing their jobs, precise pricing will be more important than ever. This is true when renewing leases, too: Over-burdening current excellent tenants may cause them to move out or end up behind on their rent.
It’ll also be important to spend extra time and attention evaluating the strength of a prospective tenant’s sources of income. In addition, we need to consider using insurances to protect the income during the term of that lease. Do you have questions about how to navigate this? Contact me at steve@nickelcity-pm.com.
